As explained in “Why do we only estimate 2 weeks into the future?”, the measures that countries take, and the change of behaviours by its population, is only expected to have an impact 10 to 12 days later.
Therefore, we are collecting information of when different countries took different types of measures to contain the epidemic. This allows us to measure the impact (if any) of specific measures between the 10th and 14th day after being taken. When we detect an impact, we will consider, to what level, the same measures taken on similar countries that are behind in the epidemic may cause the same impact.
The types of milestones we are considering analysing include:
- Request for in-country residents to self-isolate
- Voluntary self-isolation for 14 days after arrival to the country
- Mandatory 14 days quarantine after arrival to the country
- Forbidding entry to non-residents
- Closing all ports and airports
- Closing/Control of land borders
- Regional Forced Quarantine
- Country wide Forced Quarantine
- Dedicated hospitals only for COVID19
- Forbidding visits to hospitals, nursing homes, etc…
- Closing Schools and Universities
- Suspend flights from and to epidemy clusters
- Ban large cruise ships from docking
- Enhanced screening at airports
- Cancel Public events (sports / religious / concerts / other)
- Prohibit gatherings of more than 100 people
- Other measures
Yes. The world is aware of when China took different types of measures, the growth rate of confirmed cases before it took measures and 10 to 14 days after such measures were taken, and after that.
Such impact depends of the social behaviour, demographics and other factors, but it can be measured. Therefore, we will measure such changes to the epidemic growth rate in countries with similar social behaviour, and we expect to find trends. It is with this hypothesis that we will estimate impacts of measures in other countries and quickly establish new projections.